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Trap\uff09\u201d\u5177\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u589e\u8fdb\u6587\u5316\u4ea4\u6d41\u3001\u6df1\u5316\u6587\u660e\u5bf9\u8bdd\uff0c\u5c06\u4e3a\u6b27\u4e2d\u5171\u540c\u53d1\u5c55\u8d62\u5f97\u5bbd\u677e\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u73af\u5883\u3002\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6df1\u5316\u6b27\u4e2d\u5168\u9762\u6218\u7565\u4f19\u4f34\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u4e16\u754c\u683c\u5c40\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u548c\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5065\u5eb7\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u589e\u8fdb\u6587\u5316\u4ea4\u6d41\u3001\u6df1\u5316\u6587\u660e\u5bf9\u8bdd\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e2a\u522b\u56fd\u5bb6\u9f13\u5439\u201c\u6587\u660e\u51b2\u7a81\u8bba\u201d 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class=\"p1\">\u9700\u8981\u6307\u51fa\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u53e4\u5e0c\u814a\u5386\u53f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u4fee\u6614\u5e95\u5fb7\uff08Thucydides\uff09\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u63d0\u51fa\u8fc7\u201c\u4fee\u6614\u5e95\u5fb7\u9677\u9631\u201d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bcd\u3002\u201c\u4fee\u6614\u5e95\u5fb7\u9677\u9631\u201d\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\u662f\u5728\u4fee\u6614\u5e95\u5fb7\u53bb\u4e16\u540e2400\u591a\u5e74\uff0c\u7531\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u96f7\u5384\u59c6<span class=\"s1\">\u00b7<\/span>\u827e\u5229\u68ee\uff08Graham Allison\uff09\u57282012\u5e74\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5a92\u4f53\u8fc7\u5ea6\u89e3\u8bfb\u4e86\u827e\u5229\u68ee\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\u5c31\u662f\u8fd9\u4f4d\u7f8e\u56fd\u667a\u5e93\u4e13\u5bb6\u827e\u5229\u68ee\u5148\u751f\u672c\u4eba\u4e5f\u5728\u7ea0\u6b63\u8fd9\u4e00\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u4ed6\u57282017\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u7684Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides&#8217;s Trap\uff1f\uff08\u4e2d\u8bd1\u672c\u300a\u6ce8\u5b9a\u4e00\u6218\uff1a\u4e2d\u7f8e\u80fd\u907f\u5f00\u4fee\u6614\u5e95\u5fb7\u9677\u9631\u5417\uff1f\u300b\uff09\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\u5bf9\u79cd\u79cd\u8bef\u89e3\u4f5c\u51fa\u4e86\u56de\u5e94\u3002\u827e\u5229\u68ee\u662f\u91cc\u6839\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u987e\u95ee\u3001\u514b\u6797\u987f\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u52a9\u7406\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u957f\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent:2em;\" class=\"p2\">\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u8db3\u591f\u5bbd\u5e7f\u3002\u8bef\u5224\u4e0e\u731c\u5fcc\u4f1a\u5236\u9020\u4eba\u7c7b\u6700\u5927\u7684\u4e0d\u5e78\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u524d\u603b\u7edf\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u5728\u4efb\u65f6\uff0c\u660e\u786e\u53cd\u5bf9\u201c\u5b88\u6210\u5927\u56fd\u548c\u65b0\u5174\u5927\u56fd\u5fc5\u5c06\u53d1\u751f\u51b2\u7a81\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u8bf4\u6cd5\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u4e2d\u4e4b\u95f4\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u7ba1\u63a7\u5206\u6b67\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6709\u7ade\u4e89\u4e5f\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u5efa\u8bbe\u6027\u7684\u3002\u6597\u5219\u4e24\u8d25\uff0c\u5408\u5219\u4e24\u5229\u3002\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u4e3b\u5e2d\u201c\u6784\u5efa\u4e2d\u7f8e\u65b0\u578b\u5927\u56fd\u5173\u7cfb\u201d\u3001\u5171\u5efa\u4eba\u7c7b\u547d\u8fd0\u5171\u540c\u4f53\u7406\u5ff5\u7684\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u66f4\u5e94\u8be5\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e2d\u7f8e\u5173\u7cfb\u5411\u524d\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u9009\u9879\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent:2em;\" class=\"p2\">\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u4e4b\u4e89\u5df2\u7ecf\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u4efb\u4f55\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u4eba\u6c11\u90fd\u6709\u6743\u9009\u62e9\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fc7\u4e0a\u5e78\u798f\u751f\u6d3b\u7684\u9053\u8def\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ee5\u4ec5\u5360\u4e16\u754c7%\u7684\u8015\u5730\uff0c\u517b\u6d3b\u4e86\u5168\u740322%\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u3002\u65b0\u4e2d\u56fd\u5efa\u7acb\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u5747\u56fd\u6c11\u6536\u5165\u4ec527\u7f8e\u5143\uff08\u636e\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u7edf\u8ba1\uff09\u300270\u5e74\u8fc7\u53bb\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u5747\u56fd\u6c11\u603b\u6536\u51659732\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u540d\u4e49\u589e\u957f\u7ea6600\u500d\uff0c\u6263\u9664\u7269\u4ef7\u56e0\u7d20\u5b9e\u9645\u589e\u957f\u8fd160\u500d\u3002\u6539\u9769\u5f00\u653e40\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd8.5\u4ebf\u4eba\u53e3\u5b9e\u73b0\u8131\u8d2b\uff0c\u521b\u9020\u7684\u5947\u8ff9\u4e3a\u4e16\u754c\u77a9\u76ee\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent:2em;\" class=\"p2\">\u65f6\u4ee3\u8d4b\u4e88\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u673a\u9047\u5e94\u662f\u5e73\u7b49\u7684\u3002\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u5e94\u9f13\u52b1\u516c\u5e73\u7ade\u4e89\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u9760\u904f\u5236\u3002\u51b7\u6218\u601d\u7ef4\u3001\u96f6\u548c\u535a\u5f08\u548c\u6218\u7565\u8bef\u5224\u4e0d\u5229\u4e8e\u4eba\u7c7b\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u5e0c\u4e2d\u4e24\u56fd\u5e94\u529b\u4e3b\u5171\u5021\u6587\u660e\u5bf9\u8bdd\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e16\u754c\u548c\u5e73\u53d1\u5c55\u5177\u6709\u5386\u53f2\u6027\u610f\u4e49\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent:2em;\" class=\"p3\">\u4e3a\u6587\u5316\u4ea4\u6d41\u548c\u6587\u660e\u5bf9\u8bdd\u642d\u5efa\u66f4\u52a0\u4f18\u79c0\u7684\u5e73\u53f0<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent:2em;\" class=\"p2\">\u516c\u5143\u524d202\u5e74\uff0c\u53e4\u4e1d\u7ef8\u4e4b\u8def\u968f\u7740\u5f20\u9a9e\u7684\u51ff\u7a7a\u4e4b\u65c5\u62c9\u5f00\u5e8f\u5e55\u300218\u4e16\u7eaa\u4e2d\u53f6\uff0c\u6cd5\u56fd\u4f20\u6559\u58eb\u9a6c\u7ea6\u745f\uff08Joseph Premare\uff09\u5c06\u4e2d\u56fd\u53e4\u5178\u620f\u5267\u300a\u8d75\u6c0f\u5b64\u513f\u300b\u5e26\u56de\u6b27\u6d32\uff0c\u968f\u540e\u88ab\u4f0f\u5c14\u6cf0\uff08Voltaire\uff09\u642c\u4e0a\u821e\u53f0\uff0c\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u5f15\u53d1\u8f70\u52a8\uff0c\u4e00\u4ef6\u770b\u4f3c\u4e0d\u8d77\u773c\u7684\u5c0f\u4e8b\u63a8\u52a8\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6587\u5316\u70ed\u201d \u98ce\u9761\u6b27\u6d32\u534a\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\u4e4b\u4e45\u3002\u65f6\u81f3\u4eca\u65e5\uff0c \u8be5\u5267\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e1c\u65b9\u6587\u5316\u8d70\u5411\u897f\u65b9\u7684\u6807\u5fd7\u6027\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u4ecd\u5177\u6709\u5178\u578b\u610f\u4e49\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent:2em;\" class=\"p2\">\u5f53\u4eca\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fdb\u5165\u6784\u5efa\u4eba\u7c7b\u547d\u8fd0\u5171\u540c\u4f53\u65f6\u4ee3\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u6587\u660e\u53ea\u6709\u76f8\u4e92\u501f\u9274\uff0c\u53d6\u957f\u8865\u77ed\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u7f8e\u7f8e\u4e0e\u5171\u3002\u53d1\u6325\u5e0c\u4e2d\u6587\u5316\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u63a8\u52a8\u4e1c\u897f\u65b9\u6587\u660e\u5bf9\u8bdd\uff0c\u5c06\u4e3a\u201c\u4e9a\u6d32\u6587\u660e\u5bf9\u8bdd\u5927\u4f1a\u201d\u4e0a\u5347\u4e3a\u201c\u4e1c\u897f\u65b9\u6587\u660e\u5bf9\u8bdd\u5927\u4f1a\u201d\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5960\u5b9a\u57fa\u7840\u3002\u6b64\u65f6\uff0c\u91cd\u65b0\u5ba1\u89c6\u4e2d\u5e0c\u6587\u5316\u56ed\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u5176\u80a9\u8d1f\u7684\u65f6\u4ee3\u4f7f\u547d\u610f\u4e49\u66f4\u5f3a\uff0c\u4e5f\u66f4\u5bcc\u5f00\u521b\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent:2em;\" class=\"p2\">\uff08\u4e00\uff09\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u30022017\u5e745\u670813 \u65e5\uff0c\u5728\u9996\u5c4a\u201c\u4e00\u5e26\u4e00\u8def\u201d\u56fd\u9645\u5408\u4f5c\u9ad8\u5cf0\u8bba\u575b\uff08BRF\uff09\u5f00\u5e55\u524d\u5915\u4e3e\u529e\u7684\u4e2d\u5e0c\u5730\u65b9\u653f\u5e9c\u53cb\u597d\u5bf9\u8bdd\u4f1a\u4e0a\uff0c\u5728\u6b27\u4e2d\u53d1\u5c55\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08ECCRD\uff09\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bf9\u5916\u53cb\u534f\uff08CPAFFC\uff09\u5171\u540c\u63a8\u52a8\u4e0b\uff0c\u5e0c\u814a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u90e8\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u5730\u65b9\u4eba\u6c11\u653f\u5e9c\u5c31\u5171\u5efa\u4e2d\u5e0c\u6587\u5316\u56ed\u9879\u76ee\u7b7e\u8ba2\u4e86\u5408\u4f5c\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\uff0c\u5e0c\u814a\u65f6\u4efb\u603b\u7406\u9f50\u666e\u62c9\u65af\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bf9\u5916\u53cb\u534f\u4f1a\u957f\u674e\u5c0f\u6797\u73b0\u573a\u89c1\u8bc1\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u5f53\u65e5\u4e0a\u5348\u4e60\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4f1a\u89c1\u5230\u534e\u51fa\u5e2dBRF\u7684\u5e0c\u814a\u603b\u7406\uff0c\u53cc\u65b9\u4f1a\u8c08\u540e\u8bde\u751f\u7684\u53c8\u4e00\u91cd\u8981\u6210\u679c\u3002\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u53ca\u65f6\u7b7e\u7f72\u4e0d\u4ec5\u9ad8\u5ea6\u7b26\u5408\u5f53\u5929\u5e0c\u4e2d\u4e24\u56fd\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u4f1a\u8c08\u8bb2\u8bdd\u7cbe\u795e\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u9ad8\u5ea6\u5951\u5408\u65e5\u524d\u4e60\u4e3b\u5e2d\u8bbf\u95ee\u5e0c\u814a\u65f6\u5e0c\u4e2d\u4e24\u56fd\u5143\u9996\u7684\u4f1a\u8c08\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c \u662f\u6c11\u5fc3\u76f8\u901a\u7684\u65b0\u6865\u6881\u3001\u65b0\u5e73\u53f0\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent:2em;\" 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