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\/>\n\u8bfb\u5927\u5b66\u540e\u5f00\u59cb\u5173\u6ce8\u201c\u4e09\u519c\u201d\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6700\u521d\u7814\u7a76\u519c\u4e1a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u968f\u540e\u7814\u7a76\u519c\u6751\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u805a\u7126\u519c\u6c11\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u5728\u601d\u8003\u519c\u6c11\u95ee\u9898\u65f6\uff0c\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u8981\u8003\u8651\u4fdd\u969c\u519c\u6c11\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u6743\u76ca\uff08\u5373\u9700\u6c42\u4fa7\u95ee\u9898\uff09\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u8981\u8003\u8651\u63d0\u9ad8\u519c\u6c11\u7684\u7d20\u8d28\u548c\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\uff08\u5373\u4f9b\u7ed9\u4fa7\u95ee\u9898\uff09\u3002<br \/>\n2006\u5e74\u6211\u516c\u5f00\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u300a\u52a0\u5927\u4f9b\u7ed9\u653f\u7b56\u63a8\u8fdb\u529b\u5ea6\u300b\u4e00\u6587\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u57282001\u5e74\u5199\u4f5c\u5b8c\u6210\u7684\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f00\u542f\u4e86\u65b0\u4e00\u8f6e\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u5b66\u754c\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u662f\u4e3b\u8981\u7531\u5185\u9700\u62c9\u52a8\u8fd8\u662f\u5e94\u66f4\u591a\u5730\u53d1\u6325\u4f01\u4e1a\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u4e89\u8bba\u3002\u53d7\u6211\u7684\u535a\u58eb\u7814\u7a76\u751f\u5bfc\u5e08\u5434\u656c\u740f\u8001\u5e08\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u542f\u53d1\uff0c\u5199\u4f5c\u4e86\u300a\u52a0\u5927\u4f9b\u7ed9\u653f\u7b56\u63a8\u8fdb\u529b\u5ea6\u300b\u4e00\u6587\u3002\u6b64\u6587\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u201c\u968f\u7740\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u8fdb\u5165\u65b0\u7684\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u5145\u5206\u8ba4\u8bc6\u4f9b\u7ed9\u548c\u4f9b\u7ed9\u653f\u7b56\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u52a0\u5f3a\u4f9b\u7ed9\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u63a8\u8fdb\u529b\u5ea6\u201d\u201c\u4f9b\u7ed9\u662f\u6307\u6240\u6709\u80fd\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6548\u7387\u63d0\u9ad8\u8d77\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u4f9b\u7ed9\u56e0\u7d20\u6216\u4f9b\u7ed9\u529b\u91cf\uff08\u5e7f\u4e49\u4f9b\u7ed9\uff09\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e3b\u4f53\uff08\u5982\u4f01\u4e1a\u548c\u4e2a\u4eba\u7b49\uff09\u3001\u751f\u4ea7\u8981\u7d20\uff08\u5982\u8d44\u672c\u3001\u4eba\u529b\u8d44\u672c\u3001\u6280\u672f\u548c\u77e5\u8bc6\u7b49\uff09\u3001\u7ed3\u6784\u53d8\u52a8\uff08\u5982\u5de5\u4e1a\u5316\u548c\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\uff09\u548c\u5236\u5ea6\u521b\u65b0\u7b49\u201d\u3002<br \/>\n2009\u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u9700\u6c42\u7ba1\u7406\u653f\u7b56\u5927\u884c\u5176\u9053\u4e4b\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u300a\u4fdd\u589e\u957f\u4e0d\u80fd\u5ffd\u89c6\u591a\u65b9\u9762\u4f9b\u7ed9\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u300b\u4e00\u6587\uff0c\u6587\u7ae0\u63d0\u51fa\uff1a\u201c\u5f53\u524d\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u5e94\u5bf9\u56fd\u9645\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u56fd\u5185\u5404\u754c\u6b63\u5728\u4e3a\u4fdd\u589e\u957f\u800c\u4e0d\u61c8\u52aa\u529b\u3002\u4ee5\u5f80\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u5206\u6790\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u65f6\uff0c\u4e09\u5927\u9700\u6c42\u662f\u91cd\u8981\u89c6\u89d2\uff0c\u4f9b\u7ed9\u4fa7\u56e0\u7d20\u5219\u8f83\u5c11\u8003\u8651\u3002\u800c\u4f9b\u7ed9\u662f\u4e0e\u9700\u6c42\u76f8\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u662f\u6307\u6240\u6709\u80fd\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6548\u7387\u63d0\u9ad8\u8d77\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u4f9b\u7ed9\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e3b\u4f53\u3001\u751f\u4ea7\u8981\u7d20\u3001\u7ed3\u6784\u53d8\u52a8\u548c\u5236\u5ea6\u521b\u65b0\u7b49\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u9636\u6bb5\u6211\u56fd\u4fdd\u589e\u957f\u4e0d\u4ec5\u8981\u91cd\u89c6\u9700\u6c42\u4fa7\u529b\u91cf\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u62c9\u52a8\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u66f4\u8981\u91cd\u89c6\u4f9b\u7ed9\u4fa7\u529b\u91cf\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u63a8\u52a8\u4f5c\u7528\u201d\u3002<br \/>\n2012\u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u653f\u5e9c\u518d\u6b21\u5f3a\u8c03\u7528\u9700\u6c42\u7ba1\u7406\u653f\u7b56\u5b9e\u73b0\u7a33\u589e\u957f\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u300a\u4f9b\u7ed9\u662f\u51b3\u5b9a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u4e3b\u5bfc\u529b\u91cf\u300b\u4e00\u6587\u3002\u6587\u7ae0\u63d0\u51fa\uff1a\u201c\u9700\u6c42\u62c9\u52a8\u53d7\u6536\u5165\u589e\u957f\u548c\u8d2d\u4e70\u529b\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u8f83\u4e3a\u88ab\u52a8\u7684\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7a33\u589e\u957f\u5e94\u9010\u6b65\u6446\u8131\u5bf9\u9700\u6c42\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u4f9d\u8d56\uff0c\u66f4\u591a\u5730\u53d1\u6325\u4f9b\u7ed9\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u201d\u201c\u957f\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u4eba\u4eec\u6df1\u53d7\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u5f3a\u8c03\u9700\u6c42\u7ba1\u7406\u548c\u9700\u6c42\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u5206\u6790\u5b8f\u89c2\u5f62\u52bf\u548c\u63d0\u51fa\u5b8f\u89c2\u653f\u7b56\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u8a00\u5fc5\u79f0\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u2018\u4e09\u9a7e\u9a6c\u8f66\u2019(\u51fa\u53e3\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u548c\u6d88\u8d39)\uff0c\u5916\u9700\u4e0d\u884c\u4e86\u5c31\u6269\u5927\u5185\u9700\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u62c9\u4e0d\u52a8\u5c31\u4f7f\u52b2\u5730\u62c9\u52a8\u6295\u8d44\u3002\u5176\u5b9e\uff0c\u4f9b\u7ed9\u624d\u662f\u51b3\u5b9a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u4e3b\u5bfc\u529b\u91cf\u201d\u201c\u4f9b\u7ed9\u653f\u7b56\u66f4\u7b26\u5408\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u8981\u6c42\uff0c\u5728\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u5360\u636e\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u4f9b\u7ed9\u4e0e\u9700\u6c42\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u5b58\uff0c\u4f46\u56fd\u5185\u6709\u6548\u9700\u6c42\u6700\u7ec8\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5404\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u4f9b\u7ed9\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5728\u5f00\u653e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u4f9b\u7ed9\u80fd\u529b\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e00\u56fd\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u4f4e\u4f30\u4f9b\u7ed9\u653f\u7b56\u5bf9\u6211\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u201d<br \/>\n2012\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u6211\u5728\u4e0a\u767e\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u548c\u91c7\u8bbf\u4e2d\u53cd\u590d\u8bba\u8bc1\u548c\u5f3a\u8c03\uff1a\u51fa\u53e3\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u548c\u6d88\u8d39\u201c\u4e09\u9a7e\u9a6c\u8f66\u201d\u53ea\u662fGDP\u652f\u51fa\u6cd5\u6838\u7b97\u7684\u4e09\u5927\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u800c\u975e\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u9700\u6c42\u4fa7\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u52a8\u529b\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u591a\u79cd\u52a8\u529b\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0b\u884c\u6216\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u65f6\u671f\u7528\u4ee5\u629a\u5e73\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u975e\u5e38\u4e3e\u63aa\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5e38\u89c4\u6027\u653f\u7b56\u4f7f\u7528\u3002\u82e5\u975e\u8981\u5f53\u5e38\u89c4\u6027\u653f\u7b56\u4f7f\u7528\uff0c\u5fc5\u5c06\u5e26\u6765\u4ea7\u80fd\u8fc7\u5269\u3001\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u3001\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce1\u6cab\u3001\u503a\u52a1\u8d1f\u62c5\u589e\u52a0\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u9669\u52a0\u5267\u3001\u8d2b\u5bcc\u5dee\u8ddd\u62c9\u5927\u4ee5\u53ca\u8d44\u6e90\u73af\u5883\u538b\u529b\u52a0\u5927\u7b49\u526f\u4f5c\u7528\u548c\u540e\u9057\u75c7\u3002\u5bfb\u627e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5fc5\u987b\u4ece\u9700\u6c42\u4fa7\u8f6c\u5411\u4f9b\u7ed9\u4fa7\uff0c\u4e0e\u9700\u6c42\u4fa7\u201c\u4e09\u9a7e\u9a6c\u8f66\u201d\u76f8\u5bf9\u5e94\uff0c\u6211\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4f9b\u7ed9\u4fa7\u201c\u4e09\u5927\u53d1\u52a8\u673a\u201d\u7684\u65b0\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u201c\u4e09\u5927\u53d1\u52a8\u673a\u201d\u5305\u62ec\u5236\u5ea6\u53d8\u9769\u3001\u7ed3\u6784\u4f18\u5316\u548c\u8981\u7d20\u5347\u7ea7\uff0c\u6b63\u597d\u5bf9\u5e94\u7740\u65b0\u4e00\u5c4a\u4e2d\u592e\u9886\u5bfc\u53cd\u590d\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u6539\u9769\u3001\u8f6c\u578b\u548c\u521b\u65b0\u4e09\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u5236\u5ea6\u53d8\u9769\u662f\u6307\u6539\u9769\uff0c\u7ed3\u6784\u4f18\u5316\u5305\u62ec\u5de5\u4e1a\u5316\u3001\u57ce\u9547\u5316\u3001\u533a\u57df\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u5316\u7b49\uff0c\u8981\u7d20\u5347\u7ea7\u5305\u62ec\u6280\u672f\u8fdb\u6b65\u3001\u4eba\u529b\u8d44\u672c\u63d0\u5347\u3001\u77e5\u8bc6\u589e\u957f\u548c\u4fe1\u606f\u5316\u7b49\u3002\u201c\u4e09\u5927\u53d1\u52a8\u673a\u201d\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u6548\u7387\u63d0\u9ad8\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u662f\u5065\u5eb7\u3001\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p 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\/>\n\u6211\u5728\u7855\u58eb\u7814\u7a76\u751f\u671f\u95f4\u5e08\u4ece\u53d1\u5c55\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5960\u57fa\u4eba\u5f20\u57f9\u521a\u6559\u6388\u5b66\u4e86\u591a\u5e74\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u53d1\u5c55\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u57fa\u672c\u662f\u4ece\u4f9b\u7ed9\u4fa7\u5206\u6790\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u67ef\u6797\u514b\u62c9\u514b\uff08CClark\uff0c1940\uff09\u5c06\u6280\u672f\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u589e\u8fdb\u548c\u89c4\u6a21\u62a5\u916c\u9012\u589e\u770b\u6210\u662f\u51b3\u5b9a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8fdb\u6b65\uff08\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\uff09\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u6e90\u6cc9\uff1b\u54c8\u7f57\u5fb7\u2014\u591a\u9a6c\uff08Harrod&amp;Domar\uff09\u6a21\u578b\uff081946\u30011948\uff09\u8bba\u8bc1\u4e86\u8d44\u672c\u79ef\u7d2f\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u6027\u4f5c\u7528\uff1b\u5f20\u57f9\u521a\uff081949\uff09\u5c06\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u89c6\u4e3a\u5de5\u4e1a\u5316\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u800c\u5de5\u4e1a\u5316\u7684\u53d1\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\u4e3a\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bb6\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u7ba1\u7406\u624d\u80fd\u3001\u751f\u4ea7\u6280\u672f\u3001\uff08\u6709\u5229\u7684\uff09\u793e\u4f1a\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u9650\u5236\u56e0\u7d20\u4e3a\u8d44\u6e90\u6216\u7269\u529b\u3001\u4eba\u53e3\u3001\uff08\u4e0d\u5229\u7684\uff09\u793e\u4f1a\u5236\u5ea6\uff1b\u7d22\u6d1b\uff08Solow,1956\uff09\u3001\u65af\u65fa\uff08Swan,1956\uff09\u3001\u7c73\u5fb7\uff08Meade,1960\uff09\u7b49\u8bba\u8bc1\u4e86\u6280\u672f\u8fdb\u6b65\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u6027\u4f5c\u7528\uff1b\u8212\u5c14\u8328\uff08TWSchultz,1961\u30011981\uff09\u7b49\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u4eba\u529b\u8d44\u672c\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u5173\u952e\u6027\u610f\u4e49\uff1b\u4e39\u5c3c\u68ee\uff08EDenison,1962\u30011967\uff09\u3001\u80af\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\uff08JWKendrick,1961\uff09\u3001\u4e54\u6839\u68ee\uff08DJorgenson,1967\uff09\u7b49\u4eba\u5faa\u7740\u7d22\u6d1b\u7684\u601d\u8def\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u7ecf\u9a8c\u5b9e\u8bc1\u5206\u6790\u53d1\u73b0\u201c\u4f59\u503c\u589e\u957f\u201d\uff08theResidualGrowth\uff09\u662f\u7531\u8981\u7d20\u751f\u4ea7\u7387\u63d0\u9ad8\u5e26\u6765\u7684\uff1b\u7f57\u9ed8\uff08RomerP,1986\uff09\u8bba\u8bc1\u4e86\u4e13\u4e1a\u5316\u77e5\u8bc6\uff08\u77e5\u8bc6\u8d44\u672c\uff09\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\uff1b\u5362\u5361\u65af\uff08LucasR,1988\uff09\u5c06\u4eba\u529b\u8d44\u672c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5185\u751f\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u8bba\u8bc1\u4e86\u4eba\u529b\u8d44\u672c\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u53d1\u52a8\u673a\u7b49\u3002<br 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